Will Trump spend time behind bars after his conviction?

Donald Trump isn't a convicted felon yet.

Sorry to be pedantic here, but he technically acquires that status only at sentencing come July 11th.

But a New York jury has spoken, finding him guilty of engaging in a financial scheme to keep the porn star, Stormy Daniels, quiet about their sexual encounter, one that occurred shortly after Trump's wife gave birth to their son.

Trump, in addition to this guilty verdict, was recently found liable for sexual abuse in a civil case.

In total, more than 25 women have accused him of sexual assault and sexual harassment.

The reaction of the Republican Party leaders to the verdict was to rally around Trump.

Evangelical leaders, including Franklin Graham, also doubled down on their support.

Graham, writing on X, said, what we saw today has never happened before, and I think for the majority of Americans, it raises questions about whether our legal system can be trusted.

Joining me tonight to discuss the fallout and the consequences of this historic verdict, Peter Baker, the chief White House reporter for The New York Times, Ashley Parker, senior national political correspondent for The Washington Post, Asma Khalid, White House correspondent for NPR, and my colleague and staff writer at The Atlantic, McKay Coppins.

Thank you all for joining me.

It's been the sort of week that you never would have imagined earlier in your journalism careers.

You'd never, you'd never see, but here we are.

Peter, without using the word, unprecedented, we've talked about this in the past, right?

Ashley Parker, Senior National Political Correspondent, The Washington Post: He can't do it.

He's incapable.

Jeffrey Goldberg: No.

no.

It's, it's hard.

It's banned.

It's hard not to.

We've never had this before.

But without -- try to not use the word, unprecedented, describe the meaning of the events of the past couple of days.

Peter Baker, Chief White House Correspondent, The New York Times: Yes.

You know, wouldn't you think history is kind of getting a little tired at this point, like we keep making so much of it in these last five years, it's almost become normalized.

And that's the thing, right?

We have almost forgotten how extraordinary this is because we move immediately from the notion that a president, a former president of the United States has been convicted on 34 felonies.

To the next question is, oh, what does it mean for his campaign?

How about fundraising?

And look at these statements of support from his backers.

And what is the president, President Biden, saying about it?

We don't stop and take a breath and say, wow, this is extraordinary.

Now, for many people, not probably a majority, sorry, Reverend Graham, but for many people, it will raise questions about the legitimacy of the system.

For others, it's going to be, though, a validation of it.

Finally, there is a sense of a rule of law, that even the most powerful person in our democracy can be held account if they commit crimes.

And so the question, of course, is which side of that lens are you on, because we're seeing it like a Rorschach test.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Yes.

Ashley, I want to watch with the panel a little passage of Trump's very unusual press conference today.

Let's just play that.

Donald Trump (R), Former U.S. President, 2024 Presidential Candidate: You saw what happened to some of the witnesses that were on our side.

They were literally crucified by this man who looks like an angel, but he's really a devil.

He looked so nice and soft.

When we wanted to do things, he wouldn't let him -- he wouldn't let us do those things.

But when the government wanted something, they got everything.

They got everything they wanted.

It's a rigged -- it was a rigged trial.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Obviously, knowing my personality, I would like to dwell on the use of the word, literally, because if there was literally a crucifixion in Manhattan and we missed it, shame on us, obviously.

But let's go to the -- I want to ask you a technical question first.

I mean, the trial is over, so Trump is not bound by the gag order anymore, right?

He can say whatever he wants.

Peter Baker: He knows.

The gag order is still in place.

Ashley Parker: Yes, I think he is.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right.

Ashley Parker: And he is still bound by it.

Jeffrey Goldberg: He's still bound.

He's still bound.

So, talk about that moment today in the context of going before this judge in a month-and-a-half to be sentenced.

Explain this behavior.

Ashley Parker: Right, well, my understanding is one of the things that this judge or any judge would consider when they're doing the sentencing just basically four days before the Republican National Convention is set to begin is if the defendant, if the person who's convicted has shown any remorse or contrition.

And, obviously, that's not what we're seeing here.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Asma, do you think that Trump is going to go to jail?

Asma Khalid, White House Correspondent, NPR: I don't know that I would say that with certainty.

I think a lot of folks would say that there's not an expectation that he will necessarily actually go to jail.

There are other possible consequences.

But I think regardless of whether or not he goes to jail, I think that there are certainly political consequences.

He's going to be sentenced four days before the Republican convention, and I really do want to.

Sit with that for a moment.

You are going to see the likely Republican presidential nominee be a convicted felon when his name is on the ballot come November.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right.

Peter, go back to this question of what could happen.

I mean, and there's going to be more and more speculation.

On the one hand, this is a class E felony in New York State.

It's the lowest seriousness.

He's a nonviolent offender, first time offender, 77 years old.

Putting everything else aside, it doesn't seem likely that he's going to go to prison.

Peter Baker: Well, especially if you consider recidivism, how often is he going to be sleeping with a porn star and hiding it again?

We don't know.

But the truth is, you're right, there are a lot of factors that would mitigate against a prison term.

However, I think Ashley's right.

I think that he has violated the gag order so many times, he's not showing remorse, he's not taking responsibility for his actions.

In fact, he's doing the opposite.

And that would, in fact, naturally make a judge more willing to consider something that -- including some prison time.

Now, is he going to serve that before the election?

No, there's going to be appeals and that will take forever.

And we know that he will get through November almost certainly without having to put on a jumpsuit.

Apparently it's not an orange jumpsuit in New York, I read today.

But -- Jeffrey Goldberg: the things you learn these days.

Peter Baker: Yes, right.

But it could be a question after the election if he were to win, right, because he cannot pardon himself.

It's a state crime, not a federal crime.

What does that mean?

The Supreme Court would almost certainly have to decide what would happen.

If he doesn't win, then he does face actual, you know, possible punishment.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Correct me if I'm wrong, but the only way to be pardoned would be to have a Republican governor, presumably, of New York State.

And that's not a very likely scenario in the near future.