Biden's brutal debate and what's next for Democrats

Good evening and welcome to Washington Week.

So, we just saw one of the most unusual debates in the history of American politics.

One candidate, a convicted felon, made up stories, claimed achievements that aren't his to claim, and blustered his way past legitimate questions about the insurrection.

And then there's the guy who lost the debate.

The sitting president seemed pale, tentative, befuddled, and at times incoherent.

It was a stunning performance, even for people who understand the challenges of being 81.

Following Joe Biden's alarming debate performance, Democrats here in Washington and around the country are panicking.

So what happens next?

Joining me tonight to discuss all this is Leigh Ann Caldwell, an anchor for Washington Post Live and a co-author of the Early Brief newsletter, Eugene Daniels is a White House correspondent for Politico and a co-author of Playbook, Nikole Killion is a congressional correspondent with CBS News, and Mark Leibovich is my colleague and a staff writer at The Atlantic.

So, Mark, let me begin with you.

You've been saying for a couple of years, in fact, that Biden's age is going to be a huge problem for the Democrats.

Here's what you wrote two years ago.

Two years ago, by the way, not yesterday.

Biden is by no means the more eloquent character he was in his younger days.

It can be painful to watch him give prepared speeches.

His tone can be tentative and certain sentences can become hopscotching journeys.

His aides in the room look visibly nervous at times.

Biden worked to overcome a stutter during his youth and in general it can become more difficult for stutters to conceal these effects as they age.

So, I have to ask you today, do you feel vindicated in your judgment about the president?

Mark Leibovich, Staff Writer, The Atlantic: Not necessarily, I mean, I would say that I'm still kind of stunned by the funereal environment that last night kind of unleashed upon so many Democrats that I've been talking to.

Look, I think it's there for all to see.

There's been this two-step of Democratic sort of rhetoric, which is, in private, they all basically agree, in public, they are going to sort of vouch for Biden and say he's never been sharper and so forth.

I wrote that two years ago.

I didn't break the story that he's old, but I would also argue that even 18 months ago, two years ago, there's been some decline that a lot of people have noticed, right?

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right.

Eugene, there were low expectations.

It was still stunning.

Eugene Daniels, Washington Correspondent, Politico: It was surprising.

It was shocking, I think, for all of us, I was at the political -- the office with all of my co-workers and doing the fun political thing where it's so excited.

He starts talking.

And some of the -- it wasn't even like there were sentences.

There were just like words at times, right, especially at the beginning.

And that happened for a while.

But when he said we beat Medicare, the question where he talked about COVID and then Medicare, I mean, he said we beat Medicare.

And that is when my phone started blowing up, and Democrats started being really worried because they were like, oh, we beat Medicare.

What are you talking about?

That happened over and over and over and over again last night.

And it felt that he had prepared for a completely different debate than they were going to get, right?

He, at times, wanted to attack Donald Trump personally, right?

He called him a wimp.

He said he was a convicted felon, which did seem to bother Trump.

But at the beginning, he didn't seem like he knew what he was doing.

And a lot of people talk it up to no teleprompter, but it wasn't just that he looked -- he seemed old.

He seemed like he didn't know what was going on.

He's like shuffled out on stage, all of those kinds of things.

That was what I heard and saw.

Jeffrey Goldberg: I hesitate to show this, that moment, because it's somewhat painful.

Regardless of your partisan leaning, it's painful to watch.

But I think we should remind our viewers what that moment about 12 minutes into the debate where everybody was sort of like, oh, this is going sideways.

This is that Medicaid moment.

We should watch.

Joe Biden, U.S. President: We'd be able to help make sure that all those things we need to do, child care, elder care, making sure that we continue to strengthen our health care system, making sure that we're able to make every single, solitary person eligible for what I've been able to do with the COVID -- excuse me, with dealing with everything we have to do with -- look, if -- we finally beat Medicare.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Leigh Ann, what do you think is going on here?

Is this just aging?

Was that overpreparation, as Eugene suggested?

Is it cognitive decline?

Is it being in the presence of someone he clearly can't stand?

Leigh Ann Caldwell, Anchor, Washington Post Live: So, it depends on who you talk to.

You know, Republicans have made age a primary focus of this campaign against Donald Trump with Joe Biden.

There're some aides who say that he had a cold, that he was actually sick.

There are others who say the preparation wasn't good.

And so we don't know exactly what was going on there, except what we do know is that, like I just said, Republicans have been focusing on Biden's mental acuity for years.

This is replayed over and over again on Fox News, on conservative media, Donald Trump makes fun of the president over and over again.

And last night was an opportunity for Biden to disprove all of that, and that's what didn't happen, and that's why Democrats are in freak out mode.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Let's stay on that for a minute.

I want to ask you and Nikole, what you're hearing from Democrats today.

Leigh Ann Caldwell: Yes.

So, like Eugene, I started hearing from Democrats last night.

Jeffrey Goldberg: That 12 minute mark.

Leigh Ann Caldwell: Yes, complete panic, complete panic.

The next day, today, you know, 24 hours later, 16 hours later, midday, there's still that panic But what has happened is you heard from leaders in the Democratic Party who have said, we are standing by Biden, he is our nominee.

And so what it has done is it has scaled it back -- it has scaled it back a level because they know that now is not the moment that Biden is going to step aside, that there is going to be a change, but there is a lot of trepidation, a lot of nervousness about Biden continuing to be the nominee, not only for the presidency, because they think the stakes are so high this election, but also down ballot as well.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Nikole, what are you hearing?

Nikole Killion, Congressional Correspondent, CBS News: Yes.

I mean, I think to Leanne's point, you know, I think the thing that I would point out and talking to Democrats as well, both last night and today, is I do think you have to take a step back a little bit and take more of a measured approach here over this knee-jerk reaction.

And I think, you know, that is what you're hearing from some Democrats in the sense that, yes, universally, they panned his performance, you know, fill in the adjective, terrible, poor, you know, horrible, disaster.

But at the end of the day, one thing that a lot of Democrats keep coming back to is they feel that at least on the merits of this debate, the president was more substantive on the issue of policy relative to Donald Trump.

And so while Trump, in their view, may have beaten the president with respect to style, they still feel that the president succeeded in terms of making some policy arguments.

Although one Democrat told me they feel that he did leave some things on the table.

The other thing I would point to, because I talked pretty extensively today with Jim Clyburn, who, as we know, is a very close ally of the president, pretty much resuscitated his presidential campaign.

But what he told me is that he believes at this point in time that Democrats should stay the course.

However, he did add this caveat telling me that in terms of the debate last night, that was strike one.

And he went on to say that if this were a ball game, he's got two more swings.

So, I think what you're seeing there is we're going to give you a little extra room, you know, a little arms distance here, but I think, you know, it's still a very short, tight rope, that the president is walking.

Jeffrey Goldberg: And I want to get to this complicated subject of what the Democrats could do if they decided that Joe Biden simply can't be their candidate or Joe Biden decides himself, but the idea is that there's two more strikes, that we're only four months out from the election, Mark.

Is there any possibility three months away from the election, two months away from the election that Biden is swapped out for another candidate or we're already too late for that?

Mark Leibovich: No, it's not too late.

I think one month would be too late.

I think, you know, the three strikes thing, I mean, you know, Jim Clyburn, obviously close ally, his word's going to go a long way, but what's the second strike is like the September debate.

And then like -- I mean, like what is that?

I mean, what does that even mean in a practical sense?

I mean, look, a replacement, a swap out scenario basically begins and ends with Biden stepping down on his own, people convincing him in some way, which doesn't look imminent.

But I do think that the timeframe here is over the next 72 hours or so.

I mean, I think what we're hearing here, yes, there's a circling of the wagons, but there's panic.

I mean, there is absolute panic among every -- a lot of people I'm talking to, I'm sure we're all hearing the same thing.

And there's a lot of momentum here for something to happen.

I mean, this dynamic has been in place for a long time.

It's now way out in the open.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right.

And as I pointed out, for two years, people have been, including you, have been saying that, you know, we've never had an 81-year-old, 82, 83, 84-year-old president before for a reason.

And I would note that just a little while ago, The New York Times Editorial Board came out and argued that Biden should step down.

Now, to me, that guarantees that Joe Biden will stay in the race if only to disprove the theory of The New York Times editorial board, but Mark is talking about the next 72 hours.

What would actually have to happen?

What could convince him to actually step aside?

Leigh Ann Caldwell: Everyone I'm talking to is theorizing, hypothesizing that it comes down to Joe Biden, his wife.

This is where the conversation has to start.

It's a very difficult and tough conversation and that it can only start with her.

There's other people who are saying that Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, and Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton also need to step in there too.

But, ultimately, this is a very personal decision for a man who, like any president, is very egotistical and think that they are the ones who can and should be the next president of the United States.

But from a process standpoint if you want to hear about that, he is not the nominee yet.

And so he is not the nominee until the roll call -- until he accepts the nomination at the convention and then there's the roll call beforehand.

And so it's two different scenarios.

If he decides to step aside and hand the baton over, which it is going to have to come from him, there is no one who is going to step up and say, I'm going to be -- Jeffrey Goldberg: The nomination can't be taken away from him because he doesn't have it right now in this moment.

Leigh Ann Caldwell: Exactly.

And so if that is the case, then the thousands of delegates will have to vote on a new nominee, which will be -- could be very, very Eugene Daniels: Exciting.

Leigh Ann Caldwell: Exciting.

And then if he does, if he steps down after the convention and then it's the Democratic -- the smaller DNC people who then would decide.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Why are people so scared of that opening that the Democrats will have to decide?

That's democracy after all, pick the best person to be the candidate.

Eugene Daniels: I mean, I think it's kind of like the old way of doing things with parties, right, parties had a lot more power and some of these decisions were made behind closed doors.

The Democratic Party has gone out of their way to talk about how important small D democracy is, and one man, one woman, one vote, we all are going to do this together.

And so there's almost no way I see them, you know, taking it from him and doing it behind closed doors.

And I also think what I have found really interesting is kind of the wish casting of he's going to get out of the race and then he is going to do anything but endorse his vice president and then all of the J.B. Pritzkers, the Gretchen Whitmers, the Gavin Newsoms, are going to be able to hop skip and jump over the first black woman who's been vice president and who's on the ticket with him currently, who would have who would inherit his infrastructure if you were to leave.

Jeffrey Goldberg: And, by the way, has been doing better with the Democratic base than in the first couple of years of her term.

Eugene Daniels: 100 percent the base and the kind of largely, right?

Like they have done a better job at realizing she doesn't need to be popular with every single person in the Democratic Party.

She needs to find her lane and kind of stick there.

And we had a poll recently that said in 2020, so there's a caveat there, but 41 percent of Democrats would pick her.

The next person would be Pete Buttigieg at 15 percent, Gavin Newsom at 14 percent.

So, she's in a good position.

Again, this is wish casting, because unless Dr. Jill Biden and Valerie Biden Owens, his sister, go to him and do this, it is almost impossible to see how he steps up.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Well, staying on that, I want to ask both of you this question.

Imagine, and maybe this is like we all watch too much West Wing, or we study too much scandal, or we watch -- or we look back to the Watergate period when the grandees of the Republican Party went to Richard Nixon and said, like, the game is up here.

The idea that.

Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Hakeem Jeffries, Chuck Schumer could get in a car, go over to the White House and say -- it would be a motorcade actually.

It would be a very large motorcade.

Mark Leibovich: It would be a Zoom meeting because otherwise it would be discovered.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Yes, they do.

Yes, the world's most meaningful -- the world's most important Zoom meeting.

And say to him, look, you're a great American hero.

You know, you slayed the dragon, you know, and you've done a good job, from our perspective, on a policy.

But, really, democracy is at stake, not just the Democratic Party rule.

Is there any chance that, A, that would happen, and, B, that it would have any effect?

Nikole Killion: I don't think that will happen.

I mean, you know -- Jeffrey Goldberg: Nikole's like, stop talking about it.

Stop.

Nikole Killion: I don't mean to burst your bubble, but I -- Jeffrey Goldberg: No, I have no bubble.

I just have a screenplay.

Nikole Killion: You know, the president has been in politics for 40 years.

Who has the right to tell him to step aside?

I mean, as Leigh Ann said, that is his decision to make.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Well, I mean, the people, though.

Nikole Killion: And I would say, say, you know, especially working on Capitol Hill, there are a number of octogenarians up there.

So, quite frankly -- Jeffrey Goldberg: They have a strong lobby.

Nikole Killion: But I say that from the standpoint, but they have still continued to do their job, even when there has also been, you know, similar speculation and chatter and talk about their mental cognition.

I mean, Dianne Feinstein worked until her death.

Obviously, in the case of leader Mitch McConnell, he did make a decision to step aside from leadership.

But, you know, look at Bernie Sanders.

He's running for re-election.

He's 82.

So, I mean, it really is just a very personal, intimate decision for these lawmakers, and granted, you know, the president may have had a difficult night.

But as many Democrats have argued, you know, are you going to throw away three and a half years for one night, and I don't think Democrats are ready to make that call just yet.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Mark?

Mark Leibovich: Yes.

I bristle a little bit at the, it's a very personal decision.

It is not a personal -- I mean, it is a personal decision on some level, but this is a massively consequential national decision that so much is riding on.

And it's not like Mitt Romney or Nikki Haley or John McCain is, you know, standing on the stage with Joe Biden.

And it's not like this all started last night.

This is culminating a narrative.

And it's not just a narrative.

I mean, people can plainly see it.

It's not just what Republicans have been pushing.

It's not an argument.

It's not a political tool here.

I mean, it is plain to the naked eye what has been happening.

There's a level of decline.

It was really, you know, cast into great and tragic relief last night.

Eugene Daniels: Mark, and I think the thing is that Nikole is saying is like, because it's not new, it is now too late.

Had they done this before he announced, before they made that big video before he said he was going to run, I think that's different.

I think you could have had Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and Chuck Schumer also old go to the White House, go to Camp David, get on a zoom and say, look, we appreciate what you did, but it is time for us to open the primary.

You said you were going to be a bridge during the election.

The bridge needs to happen now.

And I think that's the issue is because now the timing it is -- it is possible, right?

This is something that time has not run out.

So, important to remember the Biden campaign chose June 27th as the debate before he was the nominee.

So, they put themselves in this position, they made a bet that they were going to have a great debate and then it was going to focus the American people on the choice.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Leigh Ann, I want to come to you in a minute, but I also want to watch a clip from Joe Biden today that a little bit buttresses what Nikole is saying.

Let's just watch this for a second.

Joe Biden: I know I'm not a young man.

I don't speak as smoothly as I used to.

I don't debate as well as I used to.

But I know what I do know.

I know how to tell the truth and I know how to do this job.

I know how to get things done.

And I know, like millions of Americans know, when you get knocked down, you get back up.

Jeffrey Goldberg: I love Red Bull too, so I'm totally with that.

But, I mean, there is this interesting question I kind of want you to litigate this disagreement between Mark and Nikole in a way.

Is what we saw Thursday night, is that a culmination of a decline, or is that a very bad night?

And I'd love to know your own opinions, and I'd love to know what you think the people who run the Democratic Party think.

Leigh Ann Caldwell: Okay, so in that clip he was also reading a teleprompter, which is much different than standing at a debate, standing next to his nemesis, Donald Trump.

But I will tell you what I have heard over the past year or two, mostly year, I guess, mostly from Republicans who have been in the room with President Biden through negotiations, that some days he is very strong and some days he is not.

And I think that last night was one of the days that he is not strong.

And I think that the thing is, people aren't just thinking about today, how he is today.

He will be 86 years old in four years.

And what happened last night is also distracting about Donald Trump and his debate performance and his mistruths, his lies that he continues to tell, and spinning of history, really.

Eugene Daniels: It's the inconsistency that is a problem for a lot of Democrats, right?

Because it's -- I haven't dated in a while because I'm married, but like, breadcrumbing, which is, you kind of give people just enough to keep coming back.

It's not ghosting, right?

You don't go away, but you give them just a little bit.

And so they say, you know what, actually, I don't need to break up with this person.

I'm going to stick with them.

And that's kind of what happens, because he does this terrible debate performance then he goes to this rally in Atlanta.

He does a great job, you know, by all intents and purposes, he goes today and not just on teleprompter, but he just seemed different.

The energy level was completely different.

It was midday.

So, there's that.

But that inconsistency has been the problem for years.

Jeffrey Goldberg: Right, bread crumbing.

I like that.

I'm going to steal that from you.